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Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Thinking about Indexing

Charlie Munger often compares investing to gambling.

One of his examples is that investing is like playing game in the casino.
You first choose a game that you know you will be good at, and you study it.
Then when you know your odds are good, you bet on it.

He also pointed out that one crucial difference between gambling (say poker) and investing is that you don't have to put the ante up to play - it's free to play, unless you make the transaction.

So, it seems to me that if you are indexing it, it's a little like.....paying the ante. You are "paying small sums" to be "in the game" but you don't know how you are going to play.

Of course, the trouble with that is, you NEVER get to load up on your bets. Never. Not even when you see a surefire chance.

So how are you supposed to make huge money?
One way to see it is that you are playing like the house - play for a long time, and spread out everywhere - with the idea that the odds are with the house, what evidently happens is that over long term, you make very steady return.

Interesting analogy...

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